The TRUTH About The Canadian Real Estate Market #realestate #breakingnews

Headlines in magazines and newspapers have been quick to signal the demise of Canada's economic engine - the Real Estate Market. Bold statements such as 25% declines in home values have been thrown around and questions have been raised about the long term viability of real estate investments. Statistics are being manipulated and reported out of context to instill fear amongst buyers and sellers alike.

The Real Estate Market has, arguably, single-handedly saved our nation from the effects of the global financial turmoil that surrounds us. Why the obsession with trying to take down the Real Estate Market through spreading fears of a collapse?

When looking at the true facts about our market today, one can take comfort and know that the reports are false and unsubstantiated. Here are five reasons why:

1. You cannot take a small sample of the annual sales data and make assumptions such as double digit price drops. The reports being circulated focus on a decline in the number of sales for September 2012 (5879) compared to the same month last year (7422). Sure this is approximately a 20% decline in sales when compared to last September, however if you look at the year to date numbers it is quite clear that many sellers that would have hit the market in late summer/early fall have likely moved up into the winter/early spring selling season. January to May 2012 saw healthy increases in sales over the same period last year. Year to date we are at 69,909 sales. Since 2004, the annual average for number of sales has been approximately 84,000. (2004 83,501, 2005 84,145, 2006 83,084, 2007 93,193, 2008 74,552, 2009 87,308, 2010 85,545, 2011 89,099). In 2012, a conservative finish to the year with 15,000 sales will put us at a very respectable 85,000 total. The 15,000 sale estimate is calculated from last year's 18,920 sales in the last quarter less 20%. What does this mean? It means that 2012 will finish as a typical year for the Toronto Real Estate Board. Typical in number of deals as well as showing a rather healthy, yet stable 6-8% price growth.

2. With steady price appreciation, the Canadian real estate market has never been the victim of artificially inflated prices that played a key role in the demise of the American market. Even during the recession of 2008, our housing market showed 1% growth in average sale price. A recent report in Canadian Business magazine stated that between August 2008 and March 2009, the average home prices FELL 8.5%. I would love to meet ONE person, whose home fell 8.5% in value at that time. The "average price" during that stretch was lower due to the luxury homes segment of the market slowing down. Homes priced in the lower price points were predominant and as such "average sale price" was of course lower. There is a huge difference between home values and average sales price, a difference that is being overlooked to deliberately cause confusion and panic. Looking over historical sales and average price data, going back to 1966, we have never shown double digit price decreases as those being suggested. Even in the lean years from 1990 to 1993, Canadian Real Estate showed declines between 2.5% and 7% approximately. During a recession, the first segment of the market which starts to slow is the luxury home market ($1Million plus). Take those sales out of the equation and naturally your average sale price will drop. What this means is that a decline in average sale price does NOT mean a decrease in value. Should the value of a home decrease at all, homeowners would just wait to sell. Real Estate always increases in value over time. It is not a penny stock that gets traded daily, it is a long term investment. There's no need to purchase in a frenzy or sell in a panic.

3. The comparison to the American housing market is not realistic. The crash in the States was due to many unique factors. They had a subprime mortgage market caused by a hyper competitive banking system focused on profits without controlled recourse laws. The lack of accountability afforded Americans an out without significant penalties. Canada's banking sector is rated number one in the world for stability and regulations. There are also laws protecting the banks and allow banks to pursue the borrower for punitive measures. Offsetting home prices is the fact that Canada's interest rates have remained at historically low levels. Rates will continue to stay low and should they rise, and in turn cause a negative impact on the housing market, rest assured the government will be quick to act and restore rates to their lower levels.

4. Household debt is of course on the rise. There is no arguing that. However, with the changes our government has made to protect the number one rated banking system in the world, homeowners are forced to retain greater equity in their properties. With the changes to Gross and Total Debt Service Ratios, and the banks qualifying prospective home owners at 5 year posted rates, affordability is not as big an issue as it is being made out to be in the media. Every report seems to point out Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal home prices and deeming Canada unaffordable. These cities may no longer be affordable to all home buyers, however there are many affordable alternatives throughout our country for all income levels.

5. Reports in reputable magazines suggest you sell your home now and rent in anticipation of a double digit price drop. This is one of the most ridiculous suggestions ever made. Owning your home is your inflation hedge. Real Estate is a long term investment. The opportunity cost of leaving the market will prove to be huge. Taking yourself out of the market for a year or two will not only cost you the amount you'll pay in rent, it also costs you your inflation hedge. At the same time, you're still paying a mortgage, just not your own.

A recent article in Canadian Business said "If psychology is indeed driving the market then any event that destroys confidence can touch off the fall". Ironic how they continue to play with the psyche of Canadians with negativity and unsubstantiated figures in an effort to destroy confidence. I'd be curious to know how many of these writers would sell me their home for a 25% discount. For the truth about the market, consult your Real Estate Professional and do not rely on news stories aimed at selling papers, magazines or air time. As your Realtor, we will assist you make the right decision to protect your greatest asset and build your Real Estate Portfolio.

Your home is, and will continue to be your greatest and safest investment.

Asif Khan, ABR
Re/Max All-Stars Realty Inc.
Re/Max Hall of Fame
 
click here: http://bit.ly/Phzcqe

Posted via email from Markham Real Estate Today with Asif Khan