Going Back ... To The Future

In 2007, the Real Estate Board was on fire. Over 93,000 sales took place that year. Confidence was at a high heading into 2008. In 2008, the market took a hit due to the global recession lead by the United States. All in all, it was a huge setback to the momentum that had carried over from 2007. The Toronto Real Estate Board ended 2008 with 74,552 sales that year, down about TWENTY PERCENT (20%) from 2008.  

Drawing parallels, we saw the Real Estate Board post phenomenal results in 2016 and 2017 as well. In 2018, we had to deal with the "recession" caused by the Ontario Government (yes, let's give credit to those that caused it). In 2018, we saw a decline of TWENTY PERCENT (20%)!! Sound familiar?  

Let's go back to 2009 now. There was so much pent up demand from those that didn't buy in 2008 while they waited for the market to bottom out. Heading into January of 2009, consumer confidence was at a high with the reality that the recession down south did not affect us much at all. Credit our conservative banking system for saving us from the global turmoil and pulling us through. In 2009, the market rebounded with over 87,000 sales!! This, despite inventory levels being down due to sellers holding on to their homes for the fear that they wouldn't realize as much return as they anticipated. 2009 units sold were up 17% over 2008, a solid rebound year for sure. People didnt want to wait till the spring to buy in 2009, they came flying out of the gates in late January and lit the market up. The confidence continued from 2009 right through to 2017, and we saw tremendous growth in GTA Real Estate over those years!! WIth inventory levels remaining at all time lows, we saw multiple offers on every hot property that was introduced to the market because supply could not keep up wth demand. Bidding wars were the new normal.  

Why does this mean anything to you? Who cares about what happened 10 years ago? I'll tell you why this is important to you and why you need to take notice. 

When we saw the results for 2018, we noticed we were down about 20%. What were we down for 2008? Yes, 20% as well. As we start off 2019, there is a lot of pent up demand from those that were waiting for the market to bottom out. Sound familiar?  ;) Consumer confidence is at an all time high. Inventory levels are much lower than through the last 18 months, yet demand is strong. Multiple offers are back as supply struggles to keep up with earlier than anticipated demand. This sounds like 2009 all over again right? It's like we just went BACK to our Future!! Buyers that sat on the fence last year: you best get into the game fast. Sellers that didnt want to let go: THIS is a good time to get on the market and maximize return on your greatest investment.  

And Realtors .... if you're waiting for spring to get going, you're going to miss the bus. Sure, 2018 was the new 2008 BUT 2019 is the new 2009 AND Winter is the new Spring. We're going back to our future baby!! Let's go!!

Has Toronto's Real Estate Bubble Finally Burst?

2018! What a roller coaster of a year that was for the Real Estate industry in the Greater Toronto Area!! 

First the Ontario Liberal Government decided they needed to "slow down the market" part way through 2017. The effects would carry over into the start of 2018. I still cringe whenever I recall Wynne's press conference announcing the changes that would cripple the Real Estate Market. Then came the Stress Test! People would need to qualify at a rate 2% higher than the posted rates at the banks. Then, of course, interest rate hike, after hike, after hike. All this together, contributed to one of the worst declines in annual units sold in recent history. 

However, the year was pretty much divided into two very different segments. The first five months of the year had big shoes to fill. January to May 2017 was one of the hottest periods EVER in GTA Real Estate History. January to May 2018 was behind the 8 ball before it even started. If you listen to ON THE MARKET - York Region's Exclusive Real Estate Radio Show - on 105.9 The Region, you would have heard us telling listeners that comparing the first five months of 2017 to the first five months of 2018 was like comparing Apples to Oranges. It just made no sense. That comparison made headlines, for all the wrong reasons. A false sense of optimism was conveyed to buyers. Prices were to fall, and affordability was on the horizon. This was just hot air, fueled by the obvious sales declines from 2017 which were bound to happen due to the government's poorly thought out plans. 

Now the final numbers for 2018 are out. A 16.1% sales decline for units sold and a 4.3% decline in annual average selling price. Scary numbers for sure, but to get the true picture of what's happening in the GTA Real Estate Market, we need to look at the year in two segments. Let's compare apples to apples.

I've said all along that the first five months was an apples to oranges comparison, and here is why:

1. The start to 2017 saw the GTA market struggling for inventory. 

2. Pretty much every home sold was in a bidding war. Sold prices were out of whack and did not represent true market value. 

3. The Government intervened at the end of April 2017 and rather than help affordability by increasing supply, they throttled demand making it harder for us to buy homes. This did nothing for affordability, it decreased buying power and just brought the market to a halt. 

With the aforementioned changes, it's extremely difficult, and not prudent, to judge two periods in which condtions were so drastically different. Let's look at the two years by splitting up the January to May period, from the June to December period.

January to May 2017 vs 2018

As expected, the sales volume for these two years during this time was very different. January to May 2017 saw 46,591 sales take place. This same period in 2018 had 31,785 sales. Different rules, different conditions, and as such very different results. We also didn't have the ultra hot, low inventory market that contributed to all the multiple offers in 2017. In the first five months of 2018 we had increases in active listings and new listings to give us about four months of inventory vs 2017 where we had less than one month of inventory. Obviously, the average price for these months in 2018 showed huge declines, not solely due to the higher inventory levels, but with the tightening of lending rules purchasing power was reduced by about 16%. Canadians could now afford less of a home, which saw a shift in the market from detached homes to less expensive homes. The condo market exploded as first time buyers flocked to it. The average price of a condo is about $500,000, so if we are seeing more sales here than in the detached home market which averages $1.200,000, then of course the average price will fall. The first five months looked like this:

January -4.2%

February -12.4%

March -14.3%

April -12.32%

May -6.8%

Now we get to June. The Ontario election would be the turning point. Gone were the Liberals that had tried to destroy the market. The new goverment understood that the housing market fuels the economy and there were a lot of positive vibes circulating that the market was set to rebound. The rules had now been in place for a full year and an apples to apples comparison was now possible. So how did June to December compare year over year? These numbers may surprise you. 

From June to December in 2017, the Toronto Real Estate Board saw 45,672 homes sold. From June to December 2018,we saw a decline, but by ONLY 31 units!! The last seven months of 2018 had 45,641 sales. Same rules, same conditions, same results! Now let's look at the average price change over this same period.

June +2.04% 

July +4.8%

August +4.7%

September +2.9%

October +3.5%

November +3.6%

December +2.1%

Average price has increased, year over year, for the past seven months. If you only compare the periods that had equal market conditions, (apples to apples), the units sold were approximately the same. Price showed an increase each month during the final seven months of the year. The mix continued to show that condo sales kept increasing and taking a bite out of detached sales. Thus, these percentage increases in average price could very well have been higher but the lower price points held them in check.

I hate to burst the bubble the previous goverment was living in, but you cannot manipulate a market that is dictated by supply and demand. You can stall it for a short period with external forces, but supply and demand will eventually dictate the economics in the long term. As we head into 2019 on a level playing field, what should we expect? A Key Performance Indicator would be inventory levels. Without any external/artificial forces affecting the market, supply and demand will dictate results. Coming off a year in which we saw one of the worst declines for units sold, there seems to be a lot of pent up demand. Couple that with a decline in active and new listings. With supply eroding and demand increasing, we are now seeing the return of bidding wars and multiple offers. For buyers looking for deals, the window of opportunity is closing fast. 

We don't anticipate a huge increase in units sold, but look for a 7-10% increase taking the annual units sold to approximately 82,000. We won't see the crazy price increases that we saw in the early part of 2017. Those days are long gone. Prices will continue to show healthy appreciation in the 3-5% range. 

If you're waiting for the "bubble to burst" or the much talked about "correction", you're going to be on the outside looking in. The best time to get into the market was yesterday, the second best time is today!

 

Kid President's 20 Things We Should Say More Often

Marketing Y-O-U

Are You A Perfect 10?

Here's a quick 30 second exercise for you.  Let's create your ideal person.  Close your eyes.  Now in the next six seconds think of the smartest person you know.  Now you have 6 seconds to think of the most powerful person you know.  During the next six seconds, think of the best looking person you know.  Now, for six seconds, who is most athletic person you know.  Lastly, six seconds to think of  the nicest/kindest person you know.  

Do you have all five images in your head? Now what if all five of these people were combined into one person?  What would this ideal person be like?  Say this person be a perfect 10 in your mind.  If they are a 10, what are you?  

I did this exercise with a group I was speaking to about 10 years ago.  I asked how many people thought of the ideal person as them?  Not one person said they did.  About 1/2 the group ranked themselves between a 3 and 4, 1/3 said they'd be a 5-6, and the rest said 7-8.  Interestingly, nobody ranked themselves higher than an 8.  

What does our self evaluation tell us about ourselves?  If we don't believe in ourselves, should we expect others to?  

Life is about confidence, a belief in ourselves.  It's about improving everyday to stay at the top of your game, it's about knowing that you are just as good as everyone else, and it's about not selling yourself short.  Life is about marketing YOU!

Why is it that we can market any product, service or any other person with ease, but when it comes to marketing ourselves, we can’t do it?  Why should someone hire you?  If we think back to the above numbers that the audience rated themselves, why should someone want to do business with you if you think you're half as good as other people?  

When we ask ourselves this questions, more often than not, it is because we focus on the wrong things.  We focus on material things like looks, social ranking, our track record.  But does anyone care about those other than you?  People care about how you can help them or satisfy a need or want that they have.  If you walked into a job interview and told the interviewer how you'd be able to help them, would you get their attention?  Of course you would! It's the same with when you're selling a commodity.  If it satisfies a need or want, people will buy.  Would they buy into you though?  

There are Five simple steps, and if you follow through properly, you will have accomplished your goal by the end.  These five steps can be applied to any aspect of your life.

The first step is to establish rapport. Break the ice! Say something nice. Show them that you care.   Become a friend.  Establish a comfort level.  Be sincere; build trust, and be confident.  You can't fake "care", nor can you move forward without a genuine level of comfort.  

The second step is to find out the person’s needs and wants.  Talk to the person and ask questions.   If you’re going to a job interview, do some homework.  Find out what is required, what are they looking for in an employee? Don't assume things because what you think is the issue may not be what the reality of the situation is.  

Step Three is where you match your features and benefits to their needs and wants.  This is the easiest of the five steps.  Now that you know the person’s needs and wants all you have to do is match up your features and benefits to those needs and wants. Focus on satisfying the person’s needs before wants. Needs are “must have” wants are bonus requirements.  Tell them about the features that would benefit them.  Tell them what THEY need to hear, not what YOU want to tell them.  Maybe Creative Accounting is your strong point, but if you’re at a bank interview – DON’T GO THERE!  :)  

Step Four is the Proving Yourself.    This is where you PROVE your worth.  Show them the money - not literally :).  SHOW the person how your features and benefits satisfy their needs and wants.  You have to believe in yourself.  You have to know yourself.  Nobody else knows you better than you.  Show your confidence in your abilities. And going back to our example, don’t just say “I sell a lot of homes”.  Tell them exactly how you would be able to sell THEIR home.  Use actual statistics and demonstrate your action plan.   PROVE IT!

That takes us to Step Five.  ASK FOR THE JOB!  This is where you ask for Buy In.  You can do all Four previous steps perfectly.  If you don’t ask for the Sale, you won’t get it.  Most people will go through all the steps and then sit back and wait for the other person to make the next move.  Ask for the job.  Be Assertive, not Aggressive.  YOU are the best person for the job.  Ask for it!

You’ll notice the main focus of the entire process was on Needs and Wants matching up with Features and Benefits. It’s about satisfying needs and wants.  Satisfaction is priceless. It’s all about making a difference.  Be Confident.  KNOW that you can make a difference.  SHOW that you can make a difference.  PROVE that you are satisfying someone’s needs, and YOU become priceless.  YOU become their PERFECT 10!  And, when you're confident in your ability to be a PERFECT 10, you will stop selling yourself short.  From here on in, stop comparing and competing. Wake up everyday and be the "10" that you are!  

My Toughest Night As A Coach - Keeping Life In Perspective

Having coached hockey since 2005/06, I've probably coached 15 teams, 225 players, maybe about 75 of those in multiple years over the eight years.  I had decided in December that this would be my last year of coaching.  I wanted to just "enjoy" watching my kids play, and just be a hockey dad.  :)

The coaching finale was to be tonight.  My older daughter's team was in the Championship game, what a great way to end it, right?

Let me tell you a bit about our 2013/14 team, so you know where they came from.  Our team of 12/13 year olds was put together in October.  We had a few players that would be playing their first year of hockey.  Expectations were pretty low, and the coaching staff knew we had our work cut out for us.  From the first practice, we knew the girls had come to play!  After a sluggish start, the girls started to gel.  They bonded, they started to genuinely care about each other, and they became a tight knit squad.  Isn't that the beauty of team sports?  Involvement in team sports really does teach children life lessons that set them up for the future.  Care, respect, team work, love, overcoming fear, handling failure, and what it takes to win.

I've had many awesome days behind the bench or on the ice.  There have also been heartbreaking losses, injuries and some trying times with overzealous parents.  The TOUGHEST of all nights, was tonight.  Don't get me wrong, it wasn't that we lost in the Championship Game, which we did.  It was more than that.  It was about a player, someone's child, and indirectly as her coach - one of my children! About 20 minutes before the game, our Trainer approached me and asked to have a word with me.  She proceeded to tell me that during our two week break while waiting for tonight's game, one of our players had a serious operation and would not be in the lineup.  She then told me what had happened to Sylvie, one of our most improved players.   I was devastated.  See, we had played our final playoff game two weeks ago Saturday.  As Sylvie was leaving the arena, I pulled her aside and told her that was her best game ever.  She was solid in a big win that clinched our birth in the Championship Game.  I told her to rest up and be ready for tonight.  Well, about 10 days ago - 4 days after that game - Sylvie had brain surgery to remove an aggressive tumour.  Surgery was successful and Sylvie wanted to come and support her teammates as they played for Gold.  That's what team sports is all about.  All for one and one for all!  Bad news though.  Sylvie was hospitalized again three days ago due to complications.  She was released from hospital this morning and our trainer wasn't sure if Sylvie would still be coming or not.  Everything to do with the sport had just taken a backseat.  The health of our player, our teammate, one of our family was the focus.  After spending two weeks trying to design a game plan around beating the best goalie in the league, it wasn't important anymore.  The only thing of importance was that Sylvie be well.

I had to break the news to the team, but when?  Do I do it now?  Do I do it during my pre-game talk? Do we do it after the game?  I decided we had to do it before the game started so that if Sylvie did come we could show her how much we appreciated her.  I reiterated last game's speech about playing for each other, caring about their teammates, and no matter what happens not giving up on each other.  However, tonight it wasn't about winning or losing, tonight it was about playing for Sylvie just like Sylvie had played for us all year.  Michelle, our trainer, went over details of what had happened just so the girls wouldn't be shocked or scared when they saw Sylvie.  The girls took it on themselves that they would hit the ice hard and play for Sylvie tonight.  They went out hard, they owned the game, and they played their best game ever.  In the third period, Michelle looked at me and said "Sylvie is here"!  We were down 1-0 at the time.  How do I get the girls to stop playing and acknowledge their teammate?  I called a time out.  The ref asked if I wanted to use it later since I may pull the goalie.  I said "no", this wasn't about a game anymore.  This was about life.  I was so proud of the girls as they skated down the ice together, raised their sticks and tapped the glass to let Sylvie know they were "on her team".   Sylvie showing up a few hours after being released from the hospital showed the rest of the team that even is she was down, she was still "on their team" as well.  It was quite an emotional moment, one that the girls will never forget.  One that I will never forget.  It was a night where life was put back into perspective.  It was about my players maturing into caring and loving human beings, knowing that they play the game because they love it, but also realizing that it only is just a game.  It was about Sylvie coming out to show that she was the "One For All", it was about the rest of the team showing her that they were "All For One"!

This had to be one of my toughest nights as a coach, a parent and just as a person.  Our biggest fear is something terrible happening to our children, or to take it further, ANYONE"S child.  Tonight I learned a lot about myself as well.  I may "just be coaching" your child, but in some way that also makes them my child.  I thought I coached for the love of the game.  I don't coach for the love of the game and probably never have.  I learned that I coach for the love of the children.  Making them better people is the goal, and if they become better athletes in the process then that's just a bonus.

Putting Silver Medals around the girls' necks was a great feeling, but an even better feeling was walking over to the boards to put one around Sylvie's neck and watching the players gather around her so we could include her in the team picture.  Moments like that have made coaching these amazing children so worthwhile.  Seeing how they put Sylvie first and the game second makes it all worthwhile. As coaches and parents, we should be so proud of these girls.  They showed that winning and losing at sports doesn't mean that much when compared to the health of a teammate/sister/friend..  Being great human beings and caring for one another comes first.

Everyone, please pray for Sylvie.  Please pray that this smart, beautiful and caring little girl recovers from her surgery and lives a full and happy life.  Hug your kids a little tighter tonight and think of what Sylvie's parents must be going through and keep them in your thoughts and prayers.  Thank you!

BTW, the girls lost 1-0 on the scoreboard, however they won 100-0 in my heart.  I don't think any one of them cared what the score was.  They were just happy to celebrate their silver medals with Sylvie.  That's exactly how it should be.  Life comes first!

Great picture of the team as they head over to the boards to 

include Sylvie (back row with sunglasses) in the team picture! 

Asif Khan Nominated To Run In The TORONTO REAL ESTATE BOARD'S Upcoming Election

On April 2, 2014, Asif Khan accepted the nomination to run for Director At Large for the Toronto Real Estate Board. Licensed on the Toronto Real Estate Board since 2005, Khan is currently with RE/MAX All-Stars Realty in Markham-Unionville.  Khan's cutting edge Real Estate Business is in the top 1% of the Toronto Real Estate Board, and he will bring a fresh and positive outlook to Board decisions.  Khan says he looks forward to working hard for all members of TREB in helping to take the industry to the next level with the goal being to enhance a Realtor's value and client satisfaction. Voting begins on April 30th and ends at noon on May 5th, 2014.  

View Khan's Election Platform Video here!

Unionville Meadows - 10 Years of Academic Excellence

It's hard to believe that it has been 10 years since Unionville Meadows Public School first opened it's doors.  And what a great 10 years it has been.  The school has quickly climbed in ratings and is now known as one of Ontario's highest ranked public schools for academic excellence.

Led by outstanding Principals over it's 10 years, the school has thrived.  The first to take the helm was  Doug Wilton, followed by Amanda Leblanc, and now Leanne Hughes Fernandes.  Great Principals have provided the school with the leadership any great school requires to position itself as one of the tops in the Province.

This was the original group of teachers from Opening Day at Unionville Meadows.  Some have come, some have gone, but the core remains the same.  It was great to see many of the ones that have moved on to other schools come back for the Anniversary Celebration and the tears in their eyes as they saw what their hard work had resulted in.  Well-Rounded individuals that are nearing graduation from UMPS, already in high-school and some now in University.  Must have been a great feeling to know that you contributed to the success stories of today!

The level of care from the teachers, supports staff, and maintenance staff is phenomenal.  UMPS Children, are not just OUR children, they have become EVERYBODY'S children while at school.  The support and family type of environment rubs off on the children as well.  It's a close knit school community which sees everyone helping and encouraging each other to be the best they can be.  As Mr. Andonoff stated, the school has only had one fight between two students in it's TEN year history.  That says a lot just in that statement about how close the students are to each other.  Here is the 2013/14 Group.  Some new faces, but the same level of care and kindness that has become a hallmark of UMPS staff.

Lifelong friendships have been formed amongst the students.  Ones that will continue into the future, well after their tenure at UMPS has ended.  Sabrina and Alexandra, below, first met in Junior Kindergarten on the day the school first opened.  After spending a few years together, Alexandra moved away.  Their friendship has continued over the years and they were back together again for the 10th Anniversary festivities, sharing memories and dreams.

When the school first opened, the Junior Kindergarten classes were asked to paint what they wanted to be when they grew up on a tile.  The foyer of the school is now adorned with these tiles.  

Sabrina, of course, wanted to become an artist (with pink hair I believe). ;)  Ten years later, she is quite the artist! (but she does not have pink hair - Thank God!) 

Alexandra wanted to become a princess.  And her parent's would concur, she really does think she is now.  :)

The school's motto, and theme song, is From Seeds We Soar.  What a great motto for a school so dedicated to helping each and every student soar to heights beyond their dreams.  

Congratulations to all the staff and students of Unionville Meadows on a fabulous first ten years!  The next ten will be even better and as parents of the children you've helped raise and turn into success stories of the future, we thank you from the bottom of our hearts!  Thank you for all you have done, and all you continue to do!